The NBA's Tanking Epidemic: A Critical Analysis
The recent Memphis Grizzlies vs. Utah Jazz game, featuring a lineup of G League call-ups, is just one symptom of a deeper crisis in the NBA: the art of tanking. This strategic losing has become a pervasive issue, with teams deliberately restricting star players' minutes and fielding weaker lineups to improve their draft lottery odds. But what's the root cause, and how can the league address it?
A Historical Perspective
Tanking isn't new, but its impact on the regular season has intensified. The 2025-26 season saw a surge in uncompetitive games, with a staggering 34% of April matchups decided by 20 points or more. This trend isn't isolated; it's a continuation of a multi-season phenomenon. The NBA's data reveals a clear pattern of increasing blowout rates, particularly in the latter part of the season.
What's intriguing is that this isn't solely due to the rise in scoring or the increased emphasis on 3-point shooting. Instead, it's a tactical evolution in the way teams approach tanking. The Oklahoma City Thunder's strategy in 2021 and 2022, which involved benching key players and showcasing G League talent, has become a blueprint for other franchises. Personally, I believe this trend is a reflection of the growing sophistication of NBA front offices, who are now employing data-driven strategies to maximize their chances in the draft lottery.
The Great Flattening Experiment
The NBA's attempt to curb blatant tanking by flattening lottery odds in 2019 had unintended consequences. While it reduced the incentive for the worst teams to tank, it inadvertently encouraged mediocre teams to join the race to the bottom. This shift is evident in the increasing number of bad teams each season. The league's data shows that nine teams had a net rating of -5.0 or worse in the 2025-26 season, a record low in NBA history. This trend directly correlates with the rise in lopsided games, especially when tanking teams face non-tanking opponents.
The NBA's initial solution, it seems, has only exacerbated the problem. The upcoming Board of Governors meeting on May 28 will address this issue, but the proposed solutions are concerning. Expanding the lottery to 18 teams and equalizing odds for the worst 10 teams might further incentivize mid-table teams to tank. It's a delicate balance, as the league must find a way to discourage blatant tanking without creating new loopholes.
Rethinking Incentives
The key to solving this crisis lies in rethinking incentives. The current proposals still reward losing to some extent. I propose a radical shift: a system that incentivizes winning, even for eliminated teams. The 'Gold Plan,' presented at the MIT Sloan Sports & Analytics Conference in 2012, offers a compelling solution. By rewarding wins after playoff elimination, it encourages teams to compete throughout the season. This approach has already been successfully implemented in the Professional Women's Hockey League.
Critics argue that this plan merely shifts tanking to the beginning of the season. However, I believe this concern is overstated. Teams are more likely to compete early on, as they still harbor playoff hopes. Moreover, the Gold Plan discourages the wholesale trading of talent, ensuring rosters remain competitive. With minor adjustments, this system could significantly reduce tanking and promote a more competitive league.
In conclusion, the NBA's tanking crisis demands a bold solution. The league must learn from its past mistakes and embrace a paradigm shift. By incentivizing winning, the NBA can restore competitiveness and excitement to the regular season, ensuring that every game matters. It's time for the NBA to make a decisive move towards a more sustainable and engaging future.
